Live pig restocking boosts feed demand soybean meal prices are supported

As the number of hogs increases, the demand for corn and soybean meal will increase, which will reflect the price trend of the futures market. Therefore, at the beginning of May, we are optimistic about the trend of corn and soybean meal, and think that there should be a wave of long-term bullishness in the later period. "Market investor Mr. Wang said in an interview with reporters.

According to the Xinhua News Agency’s national price monitoring system for agricultural and sideline products and agricultural materials, the overall price of live pigs has continued to rise since the beginning of the year, and the rate of increase has accelerated markedly in the past two weeks. As of May 15, the average purchase price of pigs in the country and the average price of white pigs per week were 7.76 yuan and 9.90 yuan per catty respectively, representing a year-on-year increase of 55.8% and 50.2%.

“The price of pork in May continued to rise sharply, and set a new high since August 2008. According to past laws, the price of meat in May will have a certain drop, but the pork price in May of this year did not fall back.” Mr. Liang Fuming, general manager of Lianlian Animal Husbandry Co., Ltd. said in an interview with a reporter from China Times.

As of May 26, 1201 soybean meal contract slightly higher, opening 3347 yuan, closing 3362 yuan, the whole day rose 26 yuan, or 0.78%, closing at 3,362 yuan per ton. Judging from the market conditions, the 1201 contract of soybean meal broke through the early stage of resistance after the opening bell, and more than 30,000 hand-strengths were added to the entire day, and the positions were approaching 600,000 lines. Overnight US plate beans prices slightly higher, US soybean 07 contract rose 12 cents, or 0.87%, closing at 1389 cents per bushel, US soybean meal 07 contract rose 1.8 US dollars a day, or 0.5%, late afternoon report It closed at 360.1 US dollars per short ton.

Drought has led to a reduction in fishery production. Indirectly boosting pork consumption According to a report from Hubei Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters, as of May 16th, in addition to the Shennongjia Forest, 83 counties in the entire province have drought conditions, and the area of ​​drought-affected farmland is 16.64 million mu. There are 502,000 people and 158,000 large livestock drinking water.

When Honghu suffered a particularly severe drought once in 70 years, the water surface of 530,000 mu of the Honghu Lake was reduced by 1/4, and the deepest point in the lake was only 30 centimeters in depth. Drought caused aquaculture to suffer extreme destruction. In the past 3-4 months of the previous year, the waters in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River began to release seedlings. This year, severe drought conditions in the region caused the drought in some water areas to reach the most serious level since the founding of the People's Republic of China.

Brekke's agricultural consultation Lin Guofa believes that the water level in the waters of the entire middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is relatively low, and most of the reservoir's water level has dropped to a dead-water level. In particular, aquatic seedlings at the Honghu Lake level cannot be released. Low water level aquatic seedlings can not be put in, some farmers even if risked to put in, the mortality rate is extremely high. In the short term, if there is no significant rainfall supplement in the area, the aquatic seedlings will not be able to be put into use due to the time to market. A decrease in the amount of aquaculture seedlings will result in a lower demand for aquafeeds.

Manager Chen of Wuhan Hualong Feed Co., Ltd. believes that due to the dual impact of Japan’s nuclear leakage and drought, the overall scale of farming this year was slightly worse than last year, and the sales of aquatic feed almost stopped. Compared with the sales volume in previous years, the sales volume in the same period of last year was able to Up to 4,000 tons/month, this year it can only maintain at 1,000 tons/month, and sales are unusually light.

Ma Feng, an analyst of Maike Futures Agricultural Products Co., Ltd., believes that because of the importance of pork in China's meat products, pork has a clear alternative to other meats, while other meats are not as strong substitutes for pork. Therefore, the reduction in the supply of aquatic products will surely boost the demand for other meat, and the demand for pork will also increase. This will increase the price of pork, increase the enthusiasm of the farmers, and increase the demand for soybean meal and corn. In the case of rising fish prices, the substitution of pork will obviously occur.

"Pot up the bar to boost feed consumption" With the high pork prices, people who didn't originally raise pigs have contracted land to start hogging. Now, they really worry that the breeding industry will repeat the mistakes of 2008. In fact, pork prices have risen this year. The reason is that due to the influence of foot-and-mouth disease and new viral diarrhea at the end of last year, a large number of piglets died.” Liang Fuming of Ningbo Lianhai Animal Husbandry Co., Ltd. said in an interview with the China Times reporter that due to our timely vaccination, the disease was not Full spread, and for small-scale pig farms, due to poor environmental conditions, vaccination is not timely, once the disease will affect the entire pig farm, the pig population significantly reduced.

He said that for the later pork price movement, local ranchers have great expectations and generally believe that they will reach 10 yuan/kg. In the later stages, there is an increase in the number of sows to be stocked. Hailian Animal Husbandry is expected to increase 500-600 pigs. At the same time, in view of the fact that feed prices are still at a relatively low level, preparations for storing a batch of feed are prepared for future feeding.

According to industry sources engaged in animal husbandry and aquaculture, with the enthusiasm of ranchers for piglet replenishment, the number of gilts has recently increased. Coupled with the current sow breeding profits, some farmers have delayed the adoption of sows. In the next few months, the supply of piglets will increase and the demand for feed will increase. This will increase the demand for corn and soybean meal and provide solid spot support for corn and soybean meal.

Ma Feng, an analyst of Maike Futures Agricultural Products Co., Ltd., believes that the market is very optimistic about pig breeding, which can form a very clear support for soybean meal prices. As pig breeding is the main influencing factor for soybean meal, this species is still a very high commercial variety. For the demand for soybean meal in the market, most of the newly added pigs that were added in March were 25-35 kg of piglets.

He also believes that according to the growth law of pigs, the increase in the demand for soybean meal by new live pigs in April is expected to be around 200,000 - 25 million tons, and as China's aquaculture market increases its purchasing power in April, it is expected that new pigs will be added this year. The total number of piglets will reach 12 million to 14 million. Based on this calculation, the increase in demand for soybean meal in China in June will be close to 1 million tons, and there will be a gradual increase.

Brekke's agricultural consultation Lin Guofa believes that food has a large share in the CPI, with pork in food being a relatively large proportion. If pork prices continue to rise, it may cause the CPI to continue to rise. At present, although the price of pig slaughter is lower than the highest value in 2008, it is more than 50% higher than the same period of last year. At the same time, the current shortage of live pigs and rising aquaculture costs will lead to higher pork prices in the later period. Author: Yeh