Analysts generally optimistic about the trend of agricultural products in the second half

In the second half of the year, the seminar on the strategy of the major stock exchanges was held in Shanghai. On July 22nd, the "Daeshang Group Variety Strategy Seminar in the second half of 2011" hosted by the Dalian Commodity Exchange and the China Futures Analyst Club was held in Shanghai. More than a hundred analysts in the industry discussed the trends of related products in the second half of the year. Analysts generally optimistic about the trend of agricultural products (16.90,0.00,0.00%) in the second half of the year, but have different views on the trend of industrial products.

"Much of the corn in the market has been consistently bullish on the performance of beans." The performance of agricultural products will be better, especially corn, we are very optimistic about the medium and long-term trend of corn. "The deputy director of the New Lake Futures Institute, Feng Jie, said that the macro conditions for the turning point of supply and demand in the corn market this year began Shows that the contradiction between supply and demand has increased, and corn supply has shifted from a tight balance to a slight gap. At the same time, factors such as a sharp decline in domestic stocks and an increase in the difficulty of importing corn will also support the price of corn. Feng Jie also believes that in the face of changes in the fundamentals of supply and demand, domestic and international macroeconomic uncertainty will also lead to greater volatility in corn prices in the second half than in the first half.

SDIC China Futures analyst Wei Jie also optimistic about the outlook corn. He believes that the current consumption of ethanol in the United States is large, and the supply of raw materials is tight. If there are problems with the weather conditions in the future, corn prices may further increase. From the domestic situation, despite the increase in the sown area of ​​corn this year, the increase in supply is limited, and the increase in demand will support the price of corn.

However, Wanda Futures analyst Ge Huan Na said that in the future, domestic corn will not rise much. She believes that last year's soybean-maize price appeared a historic low and there will be a rational return this year. At the same time, from a fundamental perspective, beans are generally stronger than corn, and more businesses may prefer to buy soybean meal instead of corn.

If there is disagreement about the trend of corn, then analysts show surprisingly consistent trends for the beans.

Cheng Longyun, COFCO futures analyst, said that due to the high domestic pork prices, the current pig population has been gradually restored, which is the main positive factor for soybean meal. At the same time, in the second half of the year, domestic crushing profits of oil and fat companies will improve, and the outlook for oil and fat products will be positive. Tian Qi Futures Yu Ruiguang also said that from the recent survey of the northeastern production areas, the market changes more from the decline in soybean planting area. With the ingestion of inventories brought by domestic farming, the demand in the later period is expected to continue to push up the price of soybeans. Zhewen Futures analyst Xu Wenjie believes that although the current market is relatively optimistic about the price of beans, it should pay attention to the impact of changes in the global supply and demand balance sheet on weather and trade volume.

The trend of plasticization is mixed. The overall operation of coking coal is weak. Some domestic calcium carbide production capacity shutdowns and electricity prices are raised. It is an indisputable fact that the cost of PVC raw materials will rise. At the same time, the demand for infrastructure projects will be gradually reflected in the second half of the year, coupled with the easing of domestic macroeconomic pressures. The future trend of PVC is expected to be better than in the first half of the year.” Xu Chao, a mainland futures analyst, said that under the positive demand factors, LLDPE is also expected to step out of the rally. Wanda Futures analyst Ma Liping said that attention should be paid to the country's trends in energy-saving emission reduction policies. If the policy direction is obvious in the second half of the year, it will have a catalytic effect on PVC prices. At the same time, the key factor in the price trend of PVC in the second half of the year is the change in consumer demand. If demand increases, it also has a certain role in promoting PVC. For plastics, Earth Futures analyst Niu Wei believes that the city will continue to oscillate. He believes that the domestic PMI index fell for three consecutive months, reflecting the weak demand for the real economy, under inflationary pressure, the domestic macroeconomic policy orientation will have a greater impact on plastic prices. At the same time, the European debt crisis and the stronger US dollar will also have an uncertain impact on the future trend of plastics.

For the soon-to-be-listed coke, Yong Chi Futures analyst Zhao Zhichao said that domestic inflationary pressures remain, cost support weakened, downstream demand may decline, and overcapacity will continue to exert pressure on the market, and in the second half of the coke prices, weaker price trends will dominate. COFCO Futures analyst Jia Dongxue believes that in one to two months, coke will maintain a weak oscillation. However, with the support of the cost of coking coal in the upper reaches and the advancement of state-owned housing construction, the demand for coke in the iron and steel industry is expected to improve. After September, there may be a small rise. Jin Tong, an analyst of Haitong Futures, also stated that the coke industry is facing greater pressure for energy conservation and emission reductions. At the same time, with the implementation of targets and tasks for the construction of affordable housing at the end of the year, it will also increase the demand for coke in the steel industry. These are favorable for the future trend of coke. .