US Senior Analyst Expects Global Soybean Production to Increase by 10%

Emily French, a senior analyst at American ConsiliAgra Agricultural Consulting Co., said recently that the global soybean production is expected to increase by 10% compared with last year. The most accurate data will be obtained by the end of this year, and January will be a critical time turning point next year. Although US soybean production has declined due to weather conditions, for Argentina and Brazil, its total production will increase from 52% to 59%.

She said that at present, Brazil has become the world’s largest soybean producer, especially in recent years. South America is definitely a very important area for legume cultivation. The phenomenon of bean inversion in South America and the supply of soybean meal and soybean oil have become a concern. Focus. At this stage, the biggest threat to beans is weather.

Looking at the soybean market alone, the growing area in South America is increasing. At the same time, global demand will be getting lower and lower. From the current global stock balance, we can see that global supply this year and next year will not be affected. Great influence. This year, South American production will increase by 33%. The Argentine government has been encouraging soybean cultivation in the country, so the total amount of South America is no problem at 150 million tons. In addition, if the weather is good for Brazil, Argentina and other planting areas, the output will reach more than 70 million, so that the production in 2010 and 2011 slightly improved.

For investors, we should pay attention to the three major risks in the market: First, the delay in planting. The second is transportation risks. The third is the risk in the Brazilian soybean export process.

In addition, for soybean exporters, they should also analyze the warehousing and value chain accordingly.

"Now that China's stocks remain relatively high, we are ready to do so." She said that from the perspective of China's opening stocks and four or five years ago, its storage capacity has risen to a high level, both in South America and other regions. The short-term impact on China is not great.

The future supply will be affected by two major factors: the first is the productivity of South America; the second is the world's largest importer - China's demand will affect the global supply of soybeans. Given the preparations made by China, the global soybean market will remain stable. In the coming November and December, regardless of the production areas of Brazil and Argentina, the global market will stabilize in the next three months.